CEEAplA Working Paper Series 2009
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- Analysing the impacts of closure of a military base using a dynamic CGE modelPublication . Bayar, Ali; Mohora, Cristina; Fortuna, Mário; Rege, Sameer; Sisik, SuatMilitary bases are commonplace in many countries and may have a significant impact in the communities where they are integrated. Impacts of military bases have been analysed through different perspectives. Our aim is to analyse their economic impact. The importance of military bases has become a topic of discussion particularly when base closures or base activity reductions are under consideration. In a previous paper the authors looked at the issue using a static CGE model applied to the analysis of the economic impact of a US base located in the island of Terceira in the Azores. In the current paper a dynamic model is used to study the same issue, using more recent data and disaggregating the impact among different household categories. A base closure scenario is created and the impacts traced through various economic indicators. It is concluded that GDP falls, relative to the base scenario for a number of years recovering after some time, assuming that worsened trade balances are compensated by other transfers. This fall is prompted by a fall in employment, personal income and consumption. The model also predicts that the impact hurts different household income groups with diverse intensity. Lower income households are hurt more in relative terms but generate a smaller absolute impact. With time, the negative impact tapers off for most income groups except for the lowest which keeps on loosing more until the end of the simulation period.
- Azormod dynamic general equilibrium model for AzoresPublication . Fortuna, Mário; Bayar, Ali; Mohora, Cristina; Opese, Masudi; Sisik, SuatThe main objective of this paper is to present a multi-sectoral, multi-regional dynamic modelling platform of the Azores economy integrated within the European and global context. The platform will have the highest capabilities of analysis and forecasting in Azores for problems related to structural sectoral and regional issues, agriculture, labour markets, public finance, trade, EU funds, regional development, environment, and energy. The modelling platform is intended to act as an analytical and quantitative support for policy-making.
- Os determinantes da estrutura de capital de empresas do PSI-20Publication . Couto, Gualter; Ferreira, Sofia C.In this paper, the intention is to analyse the capital structure features of the companies operating in the Portuguese Capital Market (PSI-20). A panel analysis allows the studying of relationships between debt level and those factors which financial literature considers as determining for capital structure: size, tangibility, growth opportunities, operational risk, non-debt tax shields, profit, dividend payout, and stock price performance. This empirical study purports to describe the effects of these variables on the companies' debt level.
- Dinâmicas de empreendedorismo e microcrédito nos AçoresPublication . Couto, Gualter; Ponte, João Crispim Borges daEste estudo versará a análise de estatísticas nacionais e regionais que nos permitirão tecer algumas considerações relativamente ao perfil do empreendedor utilizador do microcrédito, designado microempreendedor, na Região Autónoma dos Açores, procurando também perceber quais os sectores de maior procura. Os resultados sugerem que os projectos de microcrédito nesta região são principalmente vocacionados para o comércio a retalho e são liderados por indivíduos do sexo masculino residentes na ilha de São Miguel, com uma idade compreendida entre os 25 e os 34 anos de idade, numa situação de desemprego, que terminaram ou frequentaram o ensino secundário.
- Directiva 2005/29/CE sobre prácticas comerciales desleales : la protección de los consumidores en Europa (I Parte)Publication . Newman-Rodríguez, SilvanaDirective 2005/29 on unfair commercial practices persecutes the construction of general a regulating frame with a view to obtaining a homogenous protection of the European consumer, as well as the elimination of the barriers in the inner market in the European Union. To this aim, the communitarian legislator has devised a norm that he looks for to consolidate the confidence of the consumer in the internal market and the access of the consumers to the border interchange, which at the same time contributes to increase the competition and the efficiency within the internal market. In the development of these objectives one granted to the Directive very ample contours. Then, in this analysis the scope of application of the Directive is examined, the concepts commercial practices and their structure, in order to determine if indeed the Directive offers an opportunity to establish a uniform notion of commercial fairness, that benefits not only to the consumers but also the border commerce.
- Directiva 2005/29/CE sobre prácticas comerciales desleales : la protección de los consumidores en Europa (II Parte)Publication . Newman-Rodríguez, SilvanaDirective 2005/29 on unfair commercial practices persecutes the construction of general a regulating frame with a view to obtaining a homogenous protection of the European consumer, as well as the elimination of the barriers in the inner market in the European Union. To this aim, the communitarian legislator has devised a norm that he looks for to consolidate the confidence of the consumer in the internal market and the access of the consumers to the border interchange, which at the same time contributes to increase the competition and the efficiency within the internal market. In the development of these objectives one granted to the Directive very ample contours. Then, in this analysis the scope of application of the Directive is examined, the concepts commercial practices and their structure, in order to determine if indeed the Directive offers an opportunity to establish a uniform notion of commercial fairness, that benefits not only to the consumers but also the border commerce.
- O efeito de factores climáticos no consumo de energia eléctricaPublication . Ferreira, José M. S.; Mendes, Armando B.Neste trabalho identificam-se as causas responsáveis por variações no consumo horário de energia com base na identificação de padrões e relações entre os dados de consumo e várias variáveis climatéricas. Para tal utilizam-se técnicas de data mining, nomeadamente a metodologia CRISP-DM e software de data warehouse MS SQL Server. Assim, foi possível verificar que as variáveis climatéricas têm influência muito significativa na produção de energia eléctrica, tendo sido possível prever os consumos de 2007 com um erro absoluto médio de 1,4 MW. Identificam-se ainda vários padrões no comportamento do consumo ou produção de energia eléctrica, nem todos espectáveis face ao conhecimento actual de domínio.
- Extrair conhecimento de bases de dados: o caso dos provérbios.Publication . Mendes, Armando B.; Funk, Matthias; Funk, GabrielaPara apoiar actividades de gestão de dados de um projecto para identificação de provérbios, tem vindo a ser construída uma base de dados ao longo de vários anos. No momento da presente análise, esta base de dados integrava informação sobre 25.000 expressões idiomáticas, incluindo mais de um milhar de respostas válidas a inquéritos de reconhecimento de provérbios. Neste artigo, descreve-se um projecto em curso com o objectivo de extrair conhecimento desta base de dados, de modo a conhecer melhor os inquiridos, o seu grau de reconhecimento de provérbios e a relação com os locais onde têm vivido. De modo a alcançar os objectivos delineados, propõe-se a utilização de metodologias de prospecção de dados (data mining), com passos como: preparação e pré-processamento, limpeza (data cleansing) e técnicas de redução de dados. A fase de preparação é cuidadosamente trabalhada, uma vez que nem sempre é descrita em estudos de prospecção de dados, apesar de constituir um passo fundamental na análise de dados provenientes de bases de dados. Para a descoberta de conhecimento, após a produção de uma tabela de dados desnormalizada, utilizam-se modelos de regressão linear múltipla e árvores de regressão segundo dois algoritmos distintos. Os resultados são comparados com o conhecimento de domínio paremiológico, com algumas conclusões inesperadas.
- Las lenguas y los derechos linguísticos en la Unión EuropeaPublication . Rodrigues, José NoronhaA multiplicidade cultural e linguística da União Europeia é um elemento da identidade europeia. Nesta medida, o multilinguismo tornou-se a arma secreta dos Estados-membros da União Europeia possibilitando uma comunicação mais eficaz e um melhor entendimento mútuo, entre os povos europeus. A língua atinge, no século XXI, no seio da União Europeia, o seu clímax.
- Measuring the impacts of personal and corporate income tax cuts on a small island open economyPublication . Bayar, Ali; Fortuna, Mário; Mohora, Cristina; Opese, Masudi; Sisik, SuatIn 1999, subsequent to a legislative review, the authorities of the Azores, an autonomous region of Portugal, decided to reduce income tax rates applicable locally by 30% in the case of corporate income and by 20% in the case of personal income. There was no debt or transfer compensation for this tax reduction, meaning that the regional budget was reduced by the equivalent amount of the tax reduction. The current paper analyses the impact of such a shock on various macro and micro variables pertaining to the Azorean economy, including social welfare, using a dynamic CGE model comprising forty five sectors, six household groups, three government levels and four trading partners. It is concluded that the short run impact on GDP is, as expected, negative, given that the marginal propensity to save of the private sector is positive and there was no compensating policy. There is an initial increase in unemployment due to the cut in government expenditures. In the long run, however, the impact becomes positive due to increased investment and private consumption. The stronger effect comes from the reduction in personal income taxes, a much greater proportion of all taxes collected in the region. Real wages net of personal income taxes rise as does the labour supply. The impact of the policy is shown to be positive for all household income groups, as evaluated through equivalent variation. The lowest income group ends up benefiting the most, in relative terms.