Browsing by Author "Silva, Francisco"
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- Assessment of equalization effects of government transfers to Portuguese municipalities using panel data methodologiesPublication . Fortuna, Mário; Silva, Francisco; Carreiro, Ricardo Jorge BenevidesThe equalization effects of transfer systems has been the subject of analyses to evaluate the effectiveness of redistribution policies and of the adequacy of revenue sharing mechanisms in providing sub national governments with adequate resources to undertake their public responsibilities. Achieving vertical and horizontal equalization among municipalities is an important issue both for long-term growth and financial stability. Reducing horizontal and vertical dissimilarities and promoting efficiency and equity is a common objective of the systems set up in many countries. In this regard, Portugal is no exception having introduced several reforms in the transfer system since the final decades of the 20th Century. Using panel data for all the municipalities, for the 1997-2010 period, this paper tests and evaluates whether there has been an equalization effect in the system of transfers to the municipalities. It also tests whether the various regulatory changes introduced improved or worsened the equalization effects. The use of panel data models permitted the use of a larger number of observations, increasing the number of degrees of freedom and decreasing collinearity between the explanatory variables as well as a better control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that on average the municipalities with the highest GDP per capita and own revenues per capita receive more transfers per capita, which suggests that the system does not contribute to equalization. It is also concluded that the successive changes of the system, namely those undertaken in 1998 and 2007, were significant in improving the equalization impact of the system.
- Azores tourism product perceptions : the Influence of the country of originPublication . Batista, Maria da Graça Câmara; Silva, Francisco; Martins, AlexandraThis study focused on the Autonomous Region of the Azores (ARA), which has some features that are considered favorable to the development of tourism and to the interest in the tourism product. However, the region’s geographical dispersion, its high dependence on transportation and the seasonality of the industry constrain its development. The present research aimed to assess tourists’ perception of certain costs (living, accommodation, plane ticket, and transportation to/from the airport), and whether these differ between tourists of different nationalities. The findings show that tourists, both residents and non-residents, have the perception that the cost of living and of the plane ticket are high, while the cost of accommodation and of transportation to the airport is considered normal by most respondents. We concluded that the models differ when applied to residents and non-residents. For non-residents, living in certain countries induces them to express differences in the perception of the costs studied, when compared to individuals that live in other countries.
- Banks’ capital, regulation and the financial crisisPublication . Teixeira, João; Silva, Francisco; Fernandes, Ana V.; Alves, Ana Carolina GomesThis paper investigates whether regulatory capital requirements play an important role in determining banks’ equity capital. We estimate equity capital regressions using panel data of a sample of 560 banks for 2004-2010. Our results suggest that regulatory capital requirements are not first order determinants of banks’ capital structure. We document differences on the effect of most factors on banks’ share of equity according to the type of bank and to the region of the bank. Finally, we show that the determinants of this share are sensitive to the recent international financial crisis and to a set of regulatory country factors.
- A CGE approach to measuring the impacts of EU structural funds in a small open economyPublication . Fortuna, Mário; Silva, Francisco; Medeiros, AnaThe present work studies the European Union (EU) funds in a regional context, while assessing the impact of EU funds on the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment of the Autonomous Region of the Azores. The theoretical model is based on a modeling platform for the Azorean economy, supported by a dynamic multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) - AzorMod, which incorporates the economic behavior of six agents: firms, households, the regional government, the central government, the European Commission and an external sector. Using simulations, we study the impact of eliminating EU funds from the Azorean economy. The study reveals that the absence of EU funds causes a reduction in public consumption and in consumer well-being and an increase in investment. GDP and employment decrease in the first year of the simulations. The GDP level is only recovered at the end of ten years when there are no EU transfers and employment at the end of one year. After this period, the estimated values, without EU funds, exceed the projected values for the scenario that include community funds.
- A computable general equilibrium modeling platform for the azorean economy : a simple approach with international tradePublication . Bayar, Ali; Fortuna, Mário; Sisik, Suat; Mohora, Cristina; Silva, FranciscoComputable general equilibrium models have become commonplace instruments of economic policy analysis in many developed countries. These models have gained increased acceptance due to their capacity to address many policy questions in a simple way, using now commonly available databases on the structure of production in the form of input-output matrices, while retaining traditional economic assumptions for household, firm and government behaviour, among others such as trade. In this paper we lay –out the model for application to the Azorean economy. The model contemplates households, firms, government, and trade. It is calibrated using a SAM built from a 1998 I-O table with all information updated to 2001. The impact of changes in trade is analysed.
- Computable general equilibrium models : a literature reviewPublication . Menezes, António Gomes de; Fortuna, Mário; Silva, Francisco; Vieira, José CabralApplied general equilibrium models have become popular tools used on ongoing economic policy debates. In this paper we discuss at length the most proeminent features of applied general equilibrium models in a comprehensive and non-technical way, thus accessible to the reader interested in economic policy but with no prior formal exposure to economic modeling. We rationalize the increasing political demand for such models as policy analysis tools. We argue that applied general equilibrium models are best equipped to model regional economies.
- Customer mobility in the Portuguese financial systemPublication . Teixeira, João; Silva, Francisco; Costa, Filipe J. C.This paper investigates the level of customer mobility in the Portuguese financial system based on new survey data. We find that customers deal, on average, with more than one bank, and own several financial products. The results show that 46.9 per cent of customers had never switched bank in the past and 92.4 per cent have no intention to switch in the next 24 months. We find that customer mobility is influenced by factors related with their social and economic condition and their level of financial activity. These same factors have an impact on the choice of the reasons for not switching bank in the future. Finally, we observe that these reasons have not only a financial nature but also a psychological nature, revealing the existence of important switching costs in the Portuguese financial system.
- Estimation of the milk production function : application of the incomplete gamma function in the São Miguel Island (Azores)Publication . Silva, Francisco; Batista, Maria da Graça Câmara; Ponte, Rui Alexandre ViveirosThe Incomplete Gamma Function was used to explain the behavior of 305 days of lactation of dairy cows on São Miguel Island in the Azores. Ultimately, 330,127 observations of the daily production of these animals were used to estimate the production functions and income per animal of each lactation. Lactations were checked, as were the months of cow calving that maximized production and income for each lactation. The conclusion was that the fourth and fifth lactations maximized the income and production per animal for the 305 days of production. The calving between the months of October and December was shown to maximize the accumulated production of lactation whereas calving between the months of August and December contributed to maximizing the accumulated income per lactation. The management of livestock directed toward the maximization of the income of the dairy farm must take into account that insemination of these animals will have to take place between the months of December and March so that calving can occur in the intended months and lactation can start at the time of the year conductive to optimal income. The management of livestock lactation of a dairy farm on São Miguel Island demonstrated that it was possible to increase production and income per animal by up to 25%, while the management of calving months was shown to also maximize production and income per animal by up to 9%. However, the low adjustment value of the model (R2 of 25%) pointed to the weak adaptation of the Incomplete Gamma Function to the data used.
- Fuel price transmission mechanisms in PortugalPublication . Silva, Francisco; Batista, Maria da Graça Câmara; Elias, Nelson PachecoThis study aims to analyse the behaviour of fuel prices at the pump (unleaded gasoline and diesel) in Portugal, relative to positive and negative variations in Brent crude oil price. Applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model to weekly time series data for the period of January 2004 through May 2009, we detected some signs of asymmetry in the transmission price mechanism. However, these patterns are not statistically significant enough to reject hypotheses of symmetry in the price adjustment mechanisms of fuel in Portugal.
- Fuel price transmission mechanisms in PortugalPublication . Silva, Francisco; Batista, Maria da Graça Câmara; Elias, Nelson PachecoThis study aims to analyze the behavior of fuel prices at the pump (unleaded gasoline and diesel) in Portugal, relative to positive and negative variations in Brent Crude Oil prices. Applying an autoregressive distributed lags model (ARDL) to weekly time series data for the period of January 2004 through May 2009, we detected some signs of asymmetry in the transmission price mechanism. However, these patterns are not statistically significant enough to reject hypotheses of symmetry in the price adjustment mechanisms of fuels in Portugal.