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Procura de gasolina por distritos em Portugal : cálculo das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo no período 1990-2010 : forecast 2011-2030
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Abstract(s)
A gasolina é um dos produtos derivados do petróleo mais importantes a nível Mundial. Tal importância deriva do peso das importações de gasolina em inúmeros países sendo o seu preço ao longo do tempo um dos determinantes diretos do custo de vida das populações, déficit da balança de pagamentos, déficit fiscal e crescimento económico dos mesmos.
Várias abordagens foram utilizadas para estudar a procura de produtos derivados de petróleo a nível Mundial ao longo dos tempos. No presente trabalho estimou-se para o período de 1990-2030 as elasticidades procura-preço e procura-rendimento de curto e longo prazo associadas ao consumo de gasolina em Portugal por distritos de acordo com diversos modelos estáticos e dinâmicos tais como os modelos LOG-LOG, LIN-LOG, LOG-LIN, LINLIN e técnicas de estimação econométrica como o GMM, método dos momentos generalizados. O modelo que originou menores desvios de estimação foi o LEM LOG-LOG, lagged endogenous model. O GMM produz estimativas das elasticidades mais reduzidas face aos modelos LEM LOG-LOG e LEM LIN-LOG. Os modelos estáticos LIN-LIN, LOG-LIN não teem validade econométrica na medida em que o PIB, produto interno bruto, não tem significância estatística o que contraria Kalyouncu et al. (2010), Dahl e Sterner (1991). Os modelos dinâmicos LEM LOG-LOG, LEM LIN-LOG, LEM GMM LOG-LOG, LEM GMM LINLOG têm significância estatística e racionalidade económica.
O presente trabalho tem uma preocupação integrativa territorial de proporcionar informação econométrica dos modelos dinâmicos validados de forma direta e intuitiva por distritos das elasticidades procura-preço e procura-rendimento da gasolina aos agentes públicos e privados numa escala microeconómica de apoio aos seus processos de decisão, de validade econométrica sustentada em trabalhos de meta-análise como Dahl e Sterner (1991), Espey (1998), Brons et al. (2006) e Dahl (2012). Pela agregação de áreas geográficas definidas na categorização NUTS II* bem como entre litoral e fronteira na vertente Norte, Centro e Sul de Portugal no sentido de uma abordagem ao fuel tourism conforme Banfi et al. (2005) obteve-se elasticidades procura-preço e procura rendimento válidas de acordo com os autores expostos acima revelando que a procura de gasolina é um bem normal de procura rígida nos distritos portugueses.
ABSTRACT: Gasoline is one of the most important products derived from oil worldwide. Such importance derives from the weight of imports of gasoline in many countries and its price over time one of the direct determinants of the cost of living, deficit of balance of payments, fiscal deficit and economic growth of the same. Various approaches were used to study the demand for petroleum products at a worldwide level over time. In the present work it was estimated for the period 1990-2030 the demand price elasticity and income-elasticity both in short and long term associated with gasoline consumption in Portugal by districts according to several static and dynamic models such as LOG-LOG, LIN-LOG, LOG-LIN, LIN-LIN and econometric estimation techniques such as GMM, generalized method of moments. The model wich originated smaller estimation deviations was the LEM LOG-LOG, lagged endogenous model. The GMM produces the lowest estimates of elasticities compared to models LEM LEM LOG-LOG and LIN-LOG. The static models LIN-LIN, LOG-LIN don´t have econometric validity cause GDP, gross domestic product, has no statistical significance which contradicts Kalyouncu et al. (2010) Dahl and Sterner (1991). Dynamic models LEM LOG-LOG, LEM LIN-LOG, LEM GMM LOG-LOG, LEM GMM LIN-LOG have statistical significance and economic rationality. This work has a territorial integrative concern to provide econometric information from validated dynamic models directly and intuitively by districts price and income elasticities of gasoline demand to public and private actors in a micro scale to support their decisionmaking processes, sustained in econometric validity of meta-analyzes works such as Dahl and Sterner (1991), Espey (1998) Brons et al. (2006) for the dynamic models and Dahl (2012) for a comparison with the different static models. By aggregating geographical areas defined in the categorization NUTS II* and coast and border on the north, center and south of Portugal towards an approach to fuel tourism as Banfi et al. (2005) it was obtained valid price and income elasticities according to the above authors wich reveals that demand for gasoline is a normal good with rigid demand in the Portuguese districts.
ABSTRACT: Gasoline is one of the most important products derived from oil worldwide. Such importance derives from the weight of imports of gasoline in many countries and its price over time one of the direct determinants of the cost of living, deficit of balance of payments, fiscal deficit and economic growth of the same. Various approaches were used to study the demand for petroleum products at a worldwide level over time. In the present work it was estimated for the period 1990-2030 the demand price elasticity and income-elasticity both in short and long term associated with gasoline consumption in Portugal by districts according to several static and dynamic models such as LOG-LOG, LIN-LOG, LOG-LIN, LIN-LIN and econometric estimation techniques such as GMM, generalized method of moments. The model wich originated smaller estimation deviations was the LEM LOG-LOG, lagged endogenous model. The GMM produces the lowest estimates of elasticities compared to models LEM LEM LOG-LOG and LIN-LOG. The static models LIN-LIN, LOG-LIN don´t have econometric validity cause GDP, gross domestic product, has no statistical significance which contradicts Kalyouncu et al. (2010) Dahl and Sterner (1991). Dynamic models LEM LOG-LOG, LEM LIN-LOG, LEM GMM LOG-LOG, LEM GMM LIN-LOG have statistical significance and economic rationality. This work has a territorial integrative concern to provide econometric information from validated dynamic models directly and intuitively by districts price and income elasticities of gasoline demand to public and private actors in a micro scale to support their decisionmaking processes, sustained in econometric validity of meta-analyzes works such as Dahl and Sterner (1991), Espey (1998) Brons et al. (2006) for the dynamic models and Dahl (2012) for a comparison with the different static models. By aggregating geographical areas defined in the categorization NUTS II* and coast and border on the north, center and south of Portugal towards an approach to fuel tourism as Banfi et al. (2005) it was obtained valid price and income elasticities according to the above authors wich reveals that demand for gasoline is a normal good with rigid demand in the Portuguese districts.
Description
Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, especialidade em Teoria Económica Geral, 3 de Junho de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.
Keywords
Combustíveis Elasticidade (procura-preço) Elasticidade (procura-rendimento) Portugal Fuels Income-Gasoline Demand Elasticity Price-Gasoline Demand Elasticity
Citation
Fonseca, Ricardo Jorge Medeiros. "Procura de gasolina por distritos em Portugal: cálculo das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo no período 1990-2010: forecast 2011-2030". 2016. 162 p.. (Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, especialidade em Teoria Económica Geral). Ponta Delgada: Universidade dos Açores, 2015. [Consult. Dia Mês Ano]. Disponível em www:<http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/3896>.