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Utilização da análise de Opções Reais : valorização da expansão do porto de Ponta Delgada
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Authors
Abstract(s)
O desenvolvimento socioeconómico de uma região está intrinsecamente ligado à eficiência e competitividade das suas infraestruturas de transporte. Na Região Autónoma dos Açores, o porto comercial de Ponta Delgada assume uma posição de destaque face à forte relevância no sistema de transportes regional.
Considerando a necessidade de investimento nesta infraestrutura que também deve acompanhar o contínuo crescimento da atividade turística na região, este estudo pretende incorporar o parâmetro “flexibilidade” na fase de implementação do plano de investimento do porto de Ponta Delgada através da avaliação de uma opção de expansão, que visa minimizar o risco e a incerteza da operação, só sendo aceite se o valor atualizado das oportunidades futuras de crescimento for superior ao valor que se prevê investir. O modelo aplicado é baseado no desenvolvido por Martins et al. (2017), apoiado nos modelos de Smit (2003) e de Oliveira (2017), sendo que a procura evolui de forma binomial, e foi analisado de acordo com a ótica de investimento, a ótica do investidor, onde se considera o valor potencial de subsídio ao investimento, e a ótica económica que pressupõe a avaliação dos efeitos colaterais induzidos na economia.
Os resultados obtidos, baseados no modelo de análise de opções reais, suportam duas grandes ideias: primeiro, a consideração de flexibilidade no planeamento do investimento aumenta o valor atual do projeto e, em segundo, a avaliação de um investimento apoiado por fundos estruturais deve ser efetuada para além da ótica financeira. Constatou-se um valor nulo obtido para a opção de expansão nas duas primeiras óticas e um valor de cerca de 120 milhões de euros para a opção na ótica económica.
ABSTRACT: The social and economic development of a region is intrinsically connected to the efficiency and competitiveness of its transport facilities. In the Autonomous Region of the Azores, the commercial port of Ponta Delgada assumes a top position in regard to its strong relevance in the regional transport system. With the need for investment in Ponta Delgada’s infrastructure and its continuous growth of tourist activity taken into account, this dissertation incorporates the “flexibility” parameter within the implementation stage for the investment plan of Ponta Delgada’s port through the evaluation of an expansion option, which aims to minimize the operation’s risks and uncertainties. This will be accepted only if the present value of the future growth opportunities exceeds the value that is predicted to invest. The model applied is based on those developed by Martins et al. (2017) supported in the models of Smit (2003) and Oliveira (2017), where the demand evolves in a binomial way. The model have been examined accordingly from a investment perspective, as well as from an investor perspective where the potential value of an investment grant is considered, and also through an economic perspective which assumes positive secondary outcomes induced in the economy. The results obtained, based on a model of real options analysis, supports two major ideas: first, the consideration of flexibility within the investment planning increases the present value of the project and secondly, an evaluation of an investment supported by structural funds should be looked beyond the financial perspective. A zero value for the expansion option was obtained from the first two perspectives and a value of about 120 million euros was achieved from the economic perspective.
ABSTRACT: The social and economic development of a region is intrinsically connected to the efficiency and competitiveness of its transport facilities. In the Autonomous Region of the Azores, the commercial port of Ponta Delgada assumes a top position in regard to its strong relevance in the regional transport system. With the need for investment in Ponta Delgada’s infrastructure and its continuous growth of tourist activity taken into account, this dissertation incorporates the “flexibility” parameter within the implementation stage for the investment plan of Ponta Delgada’s port through the evaluation of an expansion option, which aims to minimize the operation’s risks and uncertainties. This will be accepted only if the present value of the future growth opportunities exceeds the value that is predicted to invest. The model applied is based on those developed by Martins et al. (2017) supported in the models of Smit (2003) and Oliveira (2017), where the demand evolves in a binomial way. The model have been examined accordingly from a investment perspective, as well as from an investor perspective where the potential value of an investment grant is considered, and also through an economic perspective which assumes positive secondary outcomes induced in the economy. The results obtained, based on a model of real options analysis, supports two major ideas: first, the consideration of flexibility within the investment planning increases the present value of the project and secondly, an evaluation of an investment supported by structural funds should be looked beyond the financial perspective. A zero value for the expansion option was obtained from the first two perspectives and a value of about 120 million euros was achieved from the economic perspective.
Description
Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão de Empresas (MBA), 15 de junho de 2020.
Keywords
Flexibilidade Investimento Opções Reais Porto de de Ponta Delgada Investment Management Flexibility Real Options
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Tavares, André Filipe Medeiros. "Utilização da análise de de Opções Reais: valorização da expansão do porto de Ponta Delgada". 2020. VIII, 57 p.. (Dissertação de Mestrado em Gestão de Empresas). Ponta Delgada: Universidade dos Açores, 2019. [Consult. Dia Mês Ano]. Disponível em www:<http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/5864>.