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- A CGE approach to measuring the impacts of EU structural funds in a small open economyPublication . Fortuna, Mário; Silva, Francisco; Medeiros, AnaThe present work studies the European Union (EU) funds in a regional context, while assessing the impact of EU funds on the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment of the Autonomous Region of the Azores. The theoretical model is based on a modeling platform for the Azorean economy, supported by a dynamic multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) - AzorMod, which incorporates the economic behavior of six agents: firms, households, the regional government, the central government, the European Commission and an external sector. Using simulations, we study the impact of eliminating EU funds from the Azorean economy. The study reveals that the absence of EU funds causes a reduction in public consumption and in consumer well-being and an increase in investment. GDP and employment decrease in the first year of the simulations. The GDP level is only recovered at the end of ten years when there are no EU transfers and employment at the end of one year. After this period, the estimated values, without EU funds, exceed the projected values for the scenario that include community funds.
- Assessment of equalization effects of government transfers to Portuguese municipalities using panel data methodologiesPublication . Fortuna, Mário; Silva, Francisco; Carreiro, Ricardo Jorge BenevidesThe equalization effects of transfer systems has been the subject of analyses to evaluate the effectiveness of redistribution policies and of the adequacy of revenue sharing mechanisms in providing sub national governments with adequate resources to undertake their public responsibilities. Achieving vertical and horizontal equalization among municipalities is an important issue both for long-term growth and financial stability. Reducing horizontal and vertical dissimilarities and promoting efficiency and equity is a common objective of the systems set up in many countries. In this regard, Portugal is no exception having introduced several reforms in the transfer system since the final decades of the 20th Century. Using panel data for all the municipalities, for the 1997-2010 period, this paper tests and evaluates whether there has been an equalization effect in the system of transfers to the municipalities. It also tests whether the various regulatory changes introduced improved or worsened the equalization effects. The use of panel data models permitted the use of a larger number of observations, increasing the number of degrees of freedom and decreasing collinearity between the explanatory variables as well as a better control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that on average the municipalities with the highest GDP per capita and own revenues per capita receive more transfers per capita, which suggests that the system does not contribute to equalization. It is also concluded that the successive changes of the system, namely those undertaken in 1998 and 2007, were significant in improving the equalization impact of the system.
- Um modelo de equilíbrio geral para medir o impacto dos fundos comunitários numa pequena economia aberta ao exterior : o caso dos AçoresPublication . Fortuna, Mário; Silva, Francisco; Medeiros, AnaDesde a adesão de Portugal à União Europeia (UE), em 1986, que, no âmbito dos quadros negociados, a Região Autónoma dos Açores (RAA) beneficia de transferências financeiras provenientes dos diversos fundos estruturais (FEDER, FSE, FEOGA-O, FEOGA-G e FEP). A avaliação dos efeitos das transferências da UE sobre os indicadores de crescimento, investimento e emprego dos países beneficiários tem sido realizada com base em modelos desenvolvidos especificamente para esse efeito. O presente trabalho teve por propósito estudar os fundos comunitários na RAA, apurando o impacto destes fundos na economia e no emprego, contribuindo para um melhor conhecimento da importância que estes fundos têm nesta economia. […].