CEEAplA Working Paper Series 2006
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Browsing CEEAplA Working Paper Series 2006 by Author "Fortuna, Mário"
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- A computable general equilibrium modeling platform for the azorean economy : a simple approach with international tradePublication . Bayar, Ali; Fortuna, Mário; Sisik, Suat; Mohora, Cristina; Silva, FranciscoComputable general equilibrium models have become commonplace instruments of economic policy analysis in many developed countries. These models have gained increased acceptance due to their capacity to address many policy questions in a simple way, using now commonly available databases on the structure of production in the form of input-output matrices, while retaining traditional economic assumptions for household, firm and government behaviour, among others such as trade. In this paper we lay –out the model for application to the Azorean economy. The model contemplates households, firms, government, and trade. It is calibrated using a SAM built from a 1998 I-O table with all information updated to 2001. The impact of changes in trade is analysed.
- Computable general equilibrium models : a literature reviewPublication . Menezes, António Gomes de; Fortuna, Mário; Silva, Francisco; Vieira, José CabralApplied general equilibrium models have become popular tools used on ongoing economic policy debates. In this paper we discuss at length the most proeminent features of applied general equilibrium models in a comprehensive and non-technical way, thus accessible to the reader interested in economic policy but with no prior formal exposure to economic modeling. We rationalize the increasing political demand for such models as policy analysis tools. We argue that applied general equilibrium models are best equipped to model regional economies.
- Impacto dos Fundos Estruturais no PIB e no emprego : uma aplicação ao caso dos AçoresPublication . Laranjeira, Ana; Fortuna, Mário; Silva, FranciscoDesde a Segunda Guerra Mundial têm sido construídos modelos de planeamento regional para análise de problemas ambientais e sistemas de transporte. Os métodos Econométricos têm evoluído consideravelmente desde os seus primórdios nas décadas de 50 e de 60, altura em que eram dominados pelas ideias originárias da modelização econométrica nacional. A evolução da modelização regional tem sido bastante independente da modelização nacional, em grande parte devido às limitações de dados e às preocupações específicas da política económica regional. Foi propósito deste trabalho desenvolver um modelo susceptível de calcular o impacto dos fundos estruturais na economia açoriana, nomeadamente na geração do Produto Interno Bruto e do Emprego. Para além desta pretensão, o presente trabalho procurou determinar de que forma a gestão e/ou aplicação desses fundos comunitários influencia ou não o peso dos principais sectores de actividade na economia açoriana. Para este efeito, recorre-se a um modelo econométrico regional: um modelo clássico de regressão múltipla, cujas equações são bloco-recursivas.
- Impacts of closure of a military base on a small island open economyPublication . Fortuna, Mário; Bayar, Ali; Sisik, Suat; Mohora, Cristina; Rege, SameerMilitary bases are commonplace in many countries. Their economic impact on the neighbouring communities depends on their location and the level of integration of their activities on the local economies. Base closures or base activity reductions are also frequent as a consequence of military strategy alterations. The current paper seeks to analyse the economic impact of a US base located in the island of Terceira in the Azores. The base has been an important element of economic life in this island since the end of WWII. The changing geo-strategic map of the world has, along the second half of the twentieth century, led to changing roles of this base and consequent changes in the intensity of its activity. On the other hand discussions over the importance of the base for the local economy are recurrent in an attempt, on the part of the participants, to set forth arguments in favour or against the presence of military forces in the location. The current paper tries to contribute with a quantification of the economic impact of the base using a dynamic CGE model of the Azorean economy. A closure scenario is created and the impacts traced through various economic indicators including some sector detail. Estimates are made for the overall impact and for the impact on the island that houses the base.