Publicação
Climate Change Can Generate Enemy-Free Space for Crop-Feeding Herbivores
| datacite.subject.fos | Ciências Naturais::Ciências Biológicas | |
| datacite.subject.sdg | 15:Proteger a Vida Terrestre | |
| dc.contributor.author | Wyckhuys, Kris | |
| dc.contributor.author | Pozsgai, Gabor | |
| dc.contributor.author | Finch, Elizabeth | |
| dc.contributor.author | Seehausen, M. Lukas | |
| dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Wei | |
| dc.contributor.author | Gc, Yubak | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-03-26T12:52:05Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-03-26T12:52:05Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2026-03-12 | |
| dc.description.abstract | ABSTARCT: Crop-feeding herbivores reduce the world's food output by approximately 20% and climate change (CC) is bound to deepen those losses. Endemic or introduced consumer organisms (i.e., biological control agents) naturally regulate herbivore populations and secure a quarter of crop yields, but are exceptionally susceptible to CC-related disturbances. Here, we use niche modeling for 14 globally-important herbivores (or pests) to forecast how richness of the associated biological control agents of each pest—as a proxy of service strength—may alter under a CC-driven range expansion. Results show that 57%–100% of pests are bound to lose parasitoid and predator associates. The cassava mealybug Phenacoccus manihoti may experience a 27% decline in parasitoid pressure, whereas cosmopolitan pests of cereal and horticultural crops benefit from 6% to 7% drops in predator pressure. Such ‘enemy release’ can possibly exacerbate pest-induced yield losses and threaten future harvests. Ant-pest associations change in both directions, implying that pests may either face strengthened or weakened biological control. For pests spreading towards or within food-deficit regions in the equatorial belt, parasitoid declines and increases in ant pressure are most pronounced. By exposing the fragility of biodiversity-based ecological safeguards in farmland, our work calls for urgent, integrative, and nature-friendly solutions to uphold food security under environmental change. | eng |
| dc.identifier.citation | Wyckhuys, K. A., Pozsgai, G., Finch, E. A., Seehausen, M. L., Zhang, W., & Gc, Y. D. (2026). Climate change can generate enemy‐free space for crop‐feeding herbivores. Global Change Biology, 32(3), e70775. | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1111/gcb.70775 | |
| dc.identifier.eissn | 1365-2486 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1354-1013 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/8920 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.peerreviewed | yes | |
| dc.publisher | Wiley | |
| dc.relation | Food and Agriculture Organization | |
| dc.relation | Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers | |
| dc.relation | Mitigate+ | |
| dc.relation.hasversion | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.70775 | |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ | |
| dc.subject | agroecology | |
| dc.subject | biodiversity conservation | |
| dc.subject | biotic resistance | |
| dc.subject | climate change | |
| dc.subject | ecological intensification | |
| dc.subject | functional ecology | |
| dc.subject | insect decline | |
| dc.subject | sustainable agriculture | |
| dc.title | Climate Change Can Generate Enemy-Free Space for Crop-Feeding Herbivores | eng |
| dc.type | research article | |
| dcterms.references | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18609543 | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| oaire.citation.issue | 3 | |
| oaire.citation.startPage | e70775 | |
| oaire.citation.title | Global Change Biology | |
| oaire.citation.volume | 32 | |
| oaire.version | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |
| person.familyName | Pozsgai | |
| person.givenName | Gabor | |
| person.identifier.ciencia-id | A21E-D087-9379 | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0002-2300-6558 | |
| person.identifier.rid | J-1538-2012 | |
| person.identifier.scopus-author-id | 55260489700 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | 86b75375-12c4-4790-bc78-0a2a085b0d32 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | 86b75375-12c4-4790-bc78-0a2a085b0d32 |