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Futebol, apostas e arbitragem : uma perspetiva financeira
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Authors
Abstract(s)
Este estudo tem como objetivo a identificação de oportunidades de arbitragem em apostas desportivas, ou seja, ganhos sem risco, independentes da aposta feita.
A análise recaiu sobre os jogos do Campeonato do Mundo de 2018, realizado na Rússia, entre 14 de junho e 15 de julho de 2018. Esta competição foi composta por 32 seleções, com um total de 64 jogos, repartidos entre Fase de Grupos, Oitavos de Final, Quartos de Final, Meias Finais, Jogo de Apuramento do 3º e 4º Lugar e Final.
O teste empírico tem por base a metodologia utilizada por Franck et al. (2009), utilizando posição longa e posição curta.
Para efeitos comparativos, foi feito um teste à mesma metodologia, utilizando a Fase Final da Liga dos Campeões da UEFA, entre os Oitavos de Final e a Final, com início a 13 de fevereiro e términus a 26 de maio, com 29 jogos entre 16 equipas.
Foram encontradas 898 oportunidades de arbitragem, 662 relativas ao Campeonato do Mundo e 236 relativas à Fase Final da Liga dos Campeões. As rendibilidades associadas às oportunidades encontradas apresentaram-se baixas, o que faz sentido pois estão associadas a risco nulo, nomeadamente 1,88% no Campeonato do Mundo e 2,46% na Fase Final da Liga dos Campeões.
Foram ainda feitos vários testes t-Student com o objetivo de comparar médias entre diferentes grupos de rendibilidades.
Este estudo possibilitou apurar a rendibilidade associada a cada uma das oportunidades de arbitragem encontradas nas duas competições, contribuindo também para perceber as diferenças entre estas, nomeadamente no que toca a número médio de oportunidades de arbitragem por jogo, média de rendibilidades, entre outros.
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to identify arbitrage opportunities in sports betting, winnings without risk, independent of the bet made. The analysis focused on the games that make up the World Cup 2018, held in Russia, between June 14 and July 15, 2018. This competition was composed of 32 national teams, with a total of 64 games, divided between the Group Stage, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semi-finals, Qualifying Match of the 3rd and 4th Classified and the Final. The empiric test is based on the methodology used by Franck et al. (2009), using long position and short position. For comparative purposes, a test was carried out to the same methodology, using the Final Phase of the UEFA Champions League, between Round of 16 and the Final, starting on 13 February and ending on May 26, with 29 games between 16 teams. There were 898 arbitrage opportunities, 662 for the World Cup and 236 for the Final Phase of the UEFA Champions League. The returns associated to the opportunities found were low, which makes sense because they are associated with zero risk, namely 1,88% in the World Cup and 2,46% in the Final Phase of the UEFA Champions League. T-Student tests were also performed with the objective of comparing averages between different groups of returns. This study made it possible to determine the profit associated with each of the arbitrage opportunities found in the two competitions, also contributing to understand the differences between them, namely regarding the average number of arbitrage opportunities per game, average returns, among others.
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to identify arbitrage opportunities in sports betting, winnings without risk, independent of the bet made. The analysis focused on the games that make up the World Cup 2018, held in Russia, between June 14 and July 15, 2018. This competition was composed of 32 national teams, with a total of 64 games, divided between the Group Stage, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semi-finals, Qualifying Match of the 3rd and 4th Classified and the Final. The empiric test is based on the methodology used by Franck et al. (2009), using long position and short position. For comparative purposes, a test was carried out to the same methodology, using the Final Phase of the UEFA Champions League, between Round of 16 and the Final, starting on 13 February and ending on May 26, with 29 games between 16 teams. There were 898 arbitrage opportunities, 662 for the World Cup and 236 for the Final Phase of the UEFA Champions League. The returns associated to the opportunities found were low, which makes sense because they are associated with zero risk, namely 1,88% in the World Cup and 2,46% in the Final Phase of the UEFA Champions League. T-Student tests were also performed with the objective of comparing averages between different groups of returns. This study made it possible to determine the profit associated with each of the arbitrage opportunities found in the two competitions, also contributing to understand the differences between them, namely regarding the average number of arbitrage opportunities per game, average returns, among others.
Description
Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, especialização em Finanças, 3 abril de 2019, Universidade dos Açores.
Keywords
Arbitragem (Finanças) Aposta Desportiva Futebol Mercado Financeiro Risco Financeiro
Citation
Ávila, Joel José Toste. "Futebol, apostas e arbitragem: uma perspetiva financeira". 2019. 170 p.. (Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais). Ponta Delgada: Universidade dos Açores, 2018. [Consult. Dia Mês Ano]. Disponível em www:<http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/5092>.