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Análise da capacidade de resposta, transporte e evacuação: contribuição para o estudo do risco vulcânico no concelho de Ponta Delgada
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Abstract(s)
Os principais perigos naturais que têm afetado o arquipélago dos Açores ao longo da sua história são os geológicos (essencialmente sismos, erupções vulcânicas, emissões gasosas e movimentos de vertente) e os hidrometeorológicos (cheias e inundações). Nos últimos 600 anos foram contabilizadas, neste arquipélago, 28 erupções vulcânicas que resultaram em cerca de 250 fatalidades, para além de danos materiais. Estes acontecimentos destacam a importância de se estudar os diferentes tipos de perigos e de se desenvolverem planos de ação para uma melhor capacidade de resposta, e assim, mitigar o risco.
A definição de planos de evacuação para a freguesia de Arrifes (concelho de Ponta Delgada, ilha de São Miguel, Açores), tendo como base um cenário de erupção vulcânica do tipo havaiana e/ou estromboliana, constitui o foco do presente trabalho. O estudo centra-se no Sistema Vulcânico Fissural dos Picos (SVFP), uma das sete unidades vulcanológicas que formam a ilha de São Miguel. O SVFP é caraterizado pela presença de cones de escórias e escoadas lávicas basálticas (s.l.). Neste sentido, o cenário de erupção vulcânica selecionado é do tipo havaiana/estromboliana com desenvolvimento de uma escoada lávica com impacto na zona sul (S) da freguesia de Arrifes.
A seleção do melhor percurso de evacuação na iminência de uma erupção vulcânica considera a existência de três cenários relativamente à capacidade dos pontos de encontro, nomeadamente: (1) ausência de restrições; (2) com uma restrição de 250 veículos; e (3) com uma restrição de 150 veículos por ponto de encontro.
Os cenários desenvolvidos possibilitam também quantificar o tempo necessário para evacuar a população, com pressuposto que a mesma ocorreria durante o período noturno. A modelação é efetuada com recurso ao software ArcGIS® e utilizam-se os dados do edificado e da população da freguesia de Arrifes (carta militar da ilha de São Miguel (2002) à escala 1:25 000, Instituto Nacional de Estatística de Portugal), assim como os pontos de encontro estabelecidos no Plano Municipal de Emergência de Proteção Civil de Ponta Delgada (PMEPCPDL) de 2014. As ferramentas de Network Analysis (Closest Facility e Location-Allocation) permitem efetuar a análise do percurso entre as habitações e os pontos de encontro.
A análise da informação decorrente da aplicação das ferramentas supramencionadas permite o cálculo do tempo total de evacuação da zona S de Arrifes para os três cenários explorados neste estudo. O congestionamento das estradas a um terço e a dois terços da sua capacidade é também avaliado para cada um dos cenários. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, independentemente do congestionamento, a aplicação das restrições no número de veículos nos pontos de encontro permite uma evacuação total mais eficaz. Dos cenários considerados, o mais eficiente é o que impõe uma limitação de 150 veículos por ponto de encontro, porque promove uma maior dispersão da população, diminuindo o tempo total de evacuação (um máximo de 39 minutos, com congestionamento de dois terços da estrada).
A metodologia desenvolvida possibilita avaliar a eficácia da evacuação e caracterizar as suas diversas rotas, assim como quantificar as solicitações dos diferentes pontos de encontro e, ainda, estimar a importância ou irrelevância de alguns. Esta metodologia constitui uma ferramenta útil para a gestão de crises, quer durante as fases de preparação, quer nas fases de reposta.
ABSTRACT: Throughout its history, the Azores archipelago has been mainly affected by natural hazards of a geological nature (namely earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, gas emissions, and landslides) as well as hydro-meteorological (viz. floods and inundations). In the past 600 years, 28 eruptions have been documented in the archipelago, resulting in about 250 fatalities as well as extensive property/infrastructure damage. These events emphasize the need for researching these hazards and develop strategies to improve the emergency response capacity, as well as risk mitigation. The aim of this study is the development of evacuation plans for the parish of Arrifes (municipality of Ponta Delgada, São Miguel Island, Azores), based on Hawaiian and/or Strombolian volcanic eruption scenarios. The research focuses on the Picos’ Fissural Volcanic System (PFVS), which is one of the seven volcanological units that compose the island of São Miguel. This system is characterized by presence of scoria cones and basaltic lava flows (s.l.). Accordingly, the selected volcanic eruption scenario is of the Hawaiian/Strombolian type, with a lava flow developing and having an impact in the Southern (S) part of the parish of Arrifes. The selection of the best evacuation route in the case of an imminent volcanic eruption considers three scenarios with regards to the capacity of the meeting points. They are: (1) no restrictions; (2) with a restriction of 250 vehicles; (3) with a restriction of 150 vehicles per meeting point. The assessed generated also allow for the quantification of the necessary time frame to evacuate the population, under the assumption that the emergency occurs during the night. The modelling is carried out using ArcGIS® software and uses data from the parish of Arrifes' buildings and population (military map of São Miguel Island (2002) at a scale of 1:25 000; National Institute of Statistics of Portugal), as well as the meeting points established in the Municipal Civil Protection Emergency Plan of Ponta Delgada (PMEPCPDL “acronym in portuguese”), of 2014. The Network Analysis tools (Closest Facility and Location-Allocation) allow for the assessment of the route between the households and the meeting points. The analysis of the information obtained from the aforementioned tools, enables an estimation of the overall evacuation time of the Arrifes S zone for the three suggested scenarios. For each scenario, the congestion of the roadways at one-third and two-thirds of their capacity is also considered. The results reveal that, regardless of the congestion, limiting the number of vehicles at the meeting points allows for a more effective overall evacuation. The study shows that the most efficient scenario is the one that sets a limit of 150 vehicles per meeting point, because it promotes population dispersion, resulting in a decrease in the overall evacuation time (a maximum 39 minutes with two-thirds of congestion). The developed methodology allows for the evaluation of the evacuation's success and the characterization of its numerous paths, as well as quantifying the needs of the various meeting points and estimating the importance or irrelevance of some of these locations. As a result, the established approach is a valuable tool for crisis management throughout both the preparation and response phases.
ABSTRACT: Throughout its history, the Azores archipelago has been mainly affected by natural hazards of a geological nature (namely earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, gas emissions, and landslides) as well as hydro-meteorological (viz. floods and inundations). In the past 600 years, 28 eruptions have been documented in the archipelago, resulting in about 250 fatalities as well as extensive property/infrastructure damage. These events emphasize the need for researching these hazards and develop strategies to improve the emergency response capacity, as well as risk mitigation. The aim of this study is the development of evacuation plans for the parish of Arrifes (municipality of Ponta Delgada, São Miguel Island, Azores), based on Hawaiian and/or Strombolian volcanic eruption scenarios. The research focuses on the Picos’ Fissural Volcanic System (PFVS), which is one of the seven volcanological units that compose the island of São Miguel. This system is characterized by presence of scoria cones and basaltic lava flows (s.l.). Accordingly, the selected volcanic eruption scenario is of the Hawaiian/Strombolian type, with a lava flow developing and having an impact in the Southern (S) part of the parish of Arrifes. The selection of the best evacuation route in the case of an imminent volcanic eruption considers three scenarios with regards to the capacity of the meeting points. They are: (1) no restrictions; (2) with a restriction of 250 vehicles; (3) with a restriction of 150 vehicles per meeting point. The assessed generated also allow for the quantification of the necessary time frame to evacuate the population, under the assumption that the emergency occurs during the night. The modelling is carried out using ArcGIS® software and uses data from the parish of Arrifes' buildings and population (military map of São Miguel Island (2002) at a scale of 1:25 000; National Institute of Statistics of Portugal), as well as the meeting points established in the Municipal Civil Protection Emergency Plan of Ponta Delgada (PMEPCPDL “acronym in portuguese”), of 2014. The Network Analysis tools (Closest Facility and Location-Allocation) allow for the assessment of the route between the households and the meeting points. The analysis of the information obtained from the aforementioned tools, enables an estimation of the overall evacuation time of the Arrifes S zone for the three suggested scenarios. For each scenario, the congestion of the roadways at one-third and two-thirds of their capacity is also considered. The results reveal that, regardless of the congestion, limiting the number of vehicles at the meeting points allows for a more effective overall evacuation. The study shows that the most efficient scenario is the one that sets a limit of 150 vehicles per meeting point, because it promotes population dispersion, resulting in a decrease in the overall evacuation time (a maximum 39 minutes with two-thirds of congestion). The developed methodology allows for the evaluation of the evacuation's success and the characterization of its numerous paths, as well as quantifying the needs of the various meeting points and estimating the importance or irrelevance of some of these locations. As a result, the established approach is a valuable tool for crisis management throughout both the preparation and response phases.
Description
Dissertação de Mestrado, Geologia do Ambiente e Sociedade, 20 de dezembro de 2023, Universidade dos Açores.
Keywords
Risco Vulcânico Exposição Capacidade de Resposta Evacuação Mitigação
Citation
Silva, Linda Inês Fortuna Tavares. (2023). "Análise da capacidade de resposta, transporte e evacuação: contribuição para o estudo do risco vulcânico no concelho de Ponta Delgada". 164 p. (Dissertação de Mestrado em Geologia do Ambiente e Sociedade). Ponta Delgada: Universidade dos Açores, 2023. Disponível em http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/7054