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Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic

2021-08Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorCalado, Helena
dc.contributor.authorPegorelli, Camila
dc.contributor.authorVergílio, Marta H. S.
dc.contributor.authorHipólito, Cláudia
dc.contributor.authorCampos, Aldino
dc.contributor.authorMoniz, Fabiana
dc.contributor.authorCosta, Ana Cristina
dc.contributor.authorSilva, C. Pereira da
dc.contributor.authorFonseca, Catarina
dc.contributor.authorSantos, C. Frazão
dc.contributor.authorGabriel, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorGuerreiro, J.
dc.contributor.authorGil, Artur José Freire
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, David
dc.contributor.authorNg, Kiat
dc.contributor.authorMonwar, M. M.
dc.contributor.authorVentura, Maria A.
dc.contributor.authorSuárez-de Vivero, J. L.
dc.contributor.authorPinho, Mário Rui
dc.contributor.authorBorges, Paulo Jorge Soares de Amaral
dc.contributor.authorCaña-Varona, Mario
dc.contributor.authorPapaioannou, E. A.
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-13T12:02:39Z
dc.date.available2021-10-13T12:02:39Z
dc.date.issued2021-08
dc.description.abstractScenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future state of the marine environment and space. However, little progress exists in the actual development and application of actual scenario building approaches. This paper presents the methodology and results of such an approach developed within the framework of the “Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores)” project. A scenario-building approach for MSP in the area is developed and future scenarios’ storylines are formulated through the active engagement of regional experts. Outcomes from the analysis enable identifying the major risks and opportunities in the management and use of marine space and key maritime sectors, under different scenarios. Three storylines are developed representing distinct trajectories in the use and governance of marine space: (i) Nature at Work; (ii) Business-as-usual; and (iii) Blue Development. Final storylines are the outcome of intense experts’ engagement throughout the scenario-building exercise, stressing the usefulness of such participative approaches. Results can assist policymakers in the context of an adaptive and participatory MSP approach. The methodology can be tailored to other regions, while results can be revisited and adapted as new information and knowledge emerge.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThe study was conducted in the framework of the Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores) project (Ref: ACCORES-01-0145-FEDER-002 GPS Azores), financed by FEDER (85%) and with funds from the Azores 2020 Operational Programme (15%). The authors would like to thank Mike Phillips who provided input in an early version of the scenario-building exercise.en
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationCalado, H., Pegorelli, C., Vergílio, M., Hipólito, C., Campos, A., Moniz, F., Costa, A.C., Pereira da Silva, C., Fonseca, C., Frazão Santos, C., Gabriel, D., Guerreiro, J., Gil, A., Johnson, D., Ng, K., Monwar, M.M., Ventura, M.A., Suárez-de Vivero, J.L., Pinho, M., Borges, P., Caña-Varona, M. & Papaioannou, E.A. (2021) Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic. Marine Policy, 133, 104741. DOI:10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn0308-597X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/6091
dc.identifier.wos000697546600004
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X21003523pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectMaritime Spatial Planning (MSP)en
dc.subjectScenario-building Approachen
dc.subjectStorylinesen
dc.subjectBlue Growthen
dc.subjectMaritime Sectorsen
dc.titleExpert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlanticen
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.conferencePlaceUnited Kingdomen
oaire.citation.titleMarine Policyen
oaire.citation.volume133pt_PT
person.familyNameCalado
person.familyNameCosta
person.familyNameFonseca
person.familyNamede Lima Gabriel
person.familyNameFreire Gil
person.familyNameVentura
person.givenNameHelena
person.givenNameAna
person.givenNameCatarina
person.givenNameDaniela
person.givenNameArtur José
person.givenNameMaria
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