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- Top 10+1 indicators for assessing forest ecosystem conditions: A five-decade fragmentation analysisPublication . Almeida, Bruna; Cabral, Pedro; Fonseca, Catarina; Gil, Artur; Scemama, PierreGlobally, land use change has consistently resulted in greater losses than gains in aboveground biomass (AGB). Forest fragmentation is a primary driver of biodiversity loss and the depletion of natural capital. Measuring landscape characteristics and analyzing changes in forest landscape patterns are essential for accounting for the contributions of forest ecosystems to the economy and human well-being. This study predicts national forest distribution for 2036 and 2054 using a Cellular Automata (CA) system and assesses ecosystem conditions through landscape metrics at the patch, class, and landscape levels. We calculated 130 metrics and applied a Variance Threshold method to remove features with low variance, testing different thresholds. The first filtered-out metrics were further analysed through Principal Component Analysis combined with a Feature Importance technique to select and rank the top 10 indicators: effective mesh size, splitting index, mean radius of gyration, largest patch index, mean core area, core area percentage, Simpson's evenness index, mutual information, Simpson's diversity index, and mean contiguity index. The eleventh selected indicator is the AGB density, a structural measurement for ecosystem condition and a proxy for forest carbon storage and sequestration assessments. From 2000 to 2018, the national AGB forest carbon stock decreased from 131.5 to 91.3 Megatons (Mt) with expected values for 2036 and 2054 being 71.8 and 55.3 Mt., respectively. Landscape measurements quantitatively describe forest dynamics, providing insights into the structure, configuration, and changes characterizing landscape evolution. This research underscores the capability of CA models to map large-scale forest resources and predict future development scenarios, offering useful information for conservation and environmental management decisions. Additionally, it provides measurements to support Ecosystem Accounting by assessing forest extent and indicators of its conditions.
- Spatially explicit assessment of carbon storage and sequestration in forest ecosystemsPublication . almeida, bruna; Monteiro, Luís; Tiengo, Rafaela; Freire Gil, Artur José; Cabral, PedroABSTRACT: Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle, making accurate assessments of carbon dynamics essential for effective forest management and climate change mitigation strategies. This research examines the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon storage and sequestration (CSS) in forests' aboveground biomass using satellite data, machine learning (Support Vector Machines), carbon modelling and spatial statistics. The methodology follows a two-step classification process: (i) binary forest classification and (ii) forest type classification, mapping seven forest types within two main categories - Broadleaves (Quercus suber, Quercus ilex, Eucalyptus sp., and other species) and Coniferous (Pinus pinaster, Pinus pinea, and other species). We analyzed the relationship between forest type and CSS at the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) III level and identified spatial clusters, outliers, and hot and cold spots of carbon sequestration at the municipal level across mainland Portugal. The broadleaved category demonstrated the highest classification accuracy in both years, decreasing slightly from 90.3 % in 2018 to 89 % in 2022, while the Coniferous group had the lowest accuracy, declining from 84.1 % in 2018 to 83.6 % in 2022. Anselin's Local Moran's I identified clusters of carbon sequestration, while the Getis-Ord Gi analysis confirmed these findings, revealing statistically significant hotspots of carbon sequestration in the northern and central regions and cold spots in the southern region. By providing insights at the sub-regional and municipal levels, this study offers a robust framework to support sustainable forest management and climate change mitigation strategies. Moreover, it can assist decision-makers in prioritizing natural capital, and developing nature-based solutions to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss.