Browsing by Author "Uzagalieva, Ainura"
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- The demand of car rentals : a microeconometric approach with count models and survey dataPublication . Menezes, António Gomes de; Uzagalieva, AinuraThe purpose of this study is to analyze the demand side of the tourist market in a small island economy, the Autonomous Region of the Azores, a Portuguese region experienced a rapid growth in the tourism sector in the last decade. Azorean islands are, normally, a “fly-anddrive” destination given the high frequency of car rentals by the tourists. It is well known that the excessive use of cars can lead to negative externalities such as pollution and the degradation of roads. Considering the growing number of tourist in the Azores and ecological fragility that is typical for small islands, it is crucially important to investigate the extent of these negative externalities. This phenomenon is very important in terms of policy-making on the management of tourism in small island economies as well as in the global environmental context from the perspectives of effective "eco-taxes", used as instruments for internalizing negative externalities and enhancing environmental protection. To this end, the demand function of car rentals is analyzed with the use of the family of count models and the unique micro-level survey data, conducted on a large number of tourists visited the region. Based on the price elasticity of demand for care rentals, we then suggest desired tax rates for internalizing the congestion costs.
- Labor market regulations and trade patterns : the panel data analysis within a modified ricardian settingPublication . Uzagalieva, AinuraThe paper focuses on the question of how labor market regulations can affect a country’s competitive position in international trade and international trade patterns. The analysis shows that differences in labor market flexibility between countries affect their competitive positions in international markets and can serve as an independent cause of international trade. It is argued that an increase in labor market flexibility may change the relative price of goods within the country making it more competitive in international markets for commodities with uncertain demand. Changes in relative prices can alter countries’ comparative advantage and thus international trade patterns. Furthermore, it is shown that due to the differences in relative prices resulting from different labor market regulations, international trade between countries can be observed even if they are identical in all respects (e.g., labor productivity and production technology). Data reveal that a country with a more flexible labor market has comparative advantage in, and tends to export, goods with more variable demand (e.g., fashionable clothes, seasonal toys), while a country with a more rigid labor market has a comparative advantage in, and tends to export, commodities with more stable demand.
- Labor migration from East to West in the context of European integration and changing sociopolitical bordersPublication . Uzagalieva, Ainura; Choinicki, XavierLabor migration from Eastern Europe and the member countries of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to the Western countries became an important socio-economic issue. Since political systems and the nature of border management in these regions, migrations turned out to be a very complex and unpredictable issue. The purpose of this study is to analyze the region specific factors, practices and policies of migration in the Eastern countries, the possible scenarios and demographic consequences of the future migration flows. In order to address this issue properly, some of the complexities of labor migration phenomenon in the region are uncovered.
- Migration in CIS in the context of European integration and changing socio-political bordersPublication . Uzagalieva, Ainura; Chojnicki, Xavier; Filer, Randall K.; Menezes, António Gomes deLabor migration from Eastern Europe and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to Western countries became an important socio-economic issue due to the large number of migrants. Since political systems and the nature of border management in these regions change, migration flows turned out to be a very complex and unpredictable issue. The purpose of this study is to analyze possible scenarios and demographic consequences of migration flows, paying particular attention to region specific factors and migration policies implemented in recent years. The paper attempts to bridge a gap in literature on this important topic, linking traditional labor market factors with uncertainty issues and policies implemented in migrant receiving countries within the CIS. Our findings suggest that economic and migration situation in the destination CIS members became a very important determinant of migration flows. In this respect, we employ a gravity model on the sample of 12 CIS members and estimate the potential size of migration flows under three migratory scenarios. Based on these scenarios, we further evaluate the demographic consequences of migration in the largest members, including Russian Federation, Ukraine and Uzbekistan which differ largely in terms demographic as well as economic and geographic conditions. The study reveals that further demographic ageing is inevitable over the next decades even if these three countries are not similarly affected. Indeed, the dependency ratio, or the ratio of retirees to the working population, should double. We conclude that reasonable migratory flows - economically motivated - will have no significant impact on these trends unless if they become substantial.
- A multivariate logit for propensity to choose package tour over independent travelPublication . Thrane, Christer; Menezes, António Gomes de; Uzagalieva, AinuraThe antecedents of choosing package tours as opposed to independent travel have received surprisingly little attention in empirical tourism research. This paper therefore examines how a number of independent variables by means of logistic regression analysis explain the propensity for package tours to be chosen over independent travel. The empirical context is the inbound tourism market to the Azores, and the data refer to two visitor surveys conducted in 2007. There are two main findings. (1) Socio-demographic variables explain very little of the propensity to engage in package tourism. (2) Country-of-residence and certain trip-related variables, by contrast, are important predictors of this propensity. Implications for policy and future research are finally discussed.
- The poverty effect of remittance flows : evidence from GeorgiaPublication . Uzagalieva, AinuraThe main purpose of this study is to analyze the poverty effect of remittance flows in Georgia through direct and indirect channels within the context of a modified computable general equilibrium model (CGEM). The main questions of interest are if and to what extent remittance flows contribute to the production and consumption pattern of the poor. Two aspects of poverty reduction are emphasized in this study: (1) the impact of remittances on the aggregated and sectoral economic growth; and (2) the impact of remittances on the poor households, their production and consumption patterns across regions. Apart from households’ factor endowments and consumption patterns, which are reported elsewhere, particular attention is paid to regional differences in terms of market access and transaction costs. The conclusion to be drawn from this study is that, while having a strong macroeconomic growth effect at the aggregated level, emigration and inward remittance flows do not affect all sectors and residents symmetrically. Moreover, they have a rather limited impact in terms of poverty and income inequality.
- The poverty effect of remittance flows : evidence from GeorgiaPublication . Uzagalieva, Ainura; Menezes, António Gomes deThe main purpose of this study is to analyze the poverty effects of emigration and inward remittance flows through direct and indirect channels within the context of a standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. For that purpose, we use a novel approach in modeling a social accounting matrix (SAM) based CGE model by combining a novel and original data set, containing rich, highly-disaggregated household budget suveys with detailed macro-level data for Georgia. A distinctive contribution of this study is the attention paid to regional differences in terms of market access and transaction costs, in addition to households’ factor endowments and consumption patterns. The main questions of interest are if and to what extent remittance flows contribute to the production and consumption pattern of the poor. Two aspects of poverty reduction are emphasized: (1) the impact of remittances on the aggregate and sectoral economic growth; and (2) the impact of remittances on poor households, their production and consumption patterns across regions. The study concludes that while having a strong macroeconomic growth effect at the aggregate level, emigration and inward remittance flows do not affect all sectors and residents symmetrically. Moreover, they have a rather limited impact in terms of poverty and income inequality.
- Technological innovation in New European Union MarketsPublication . Uzagalieva, Ainura; Kočenda, Evžen; Menezes, António Gomes deWe analyze the role of innovation in the technological development of four new EU members: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. For that purpose, we use a novel approach by modeling the empirical relationship between intra-industrial bilateral trade flows, which proxy the level of technological progress, and innovation expenditures within the context of a gravity model with a set of appropriate instrumental variables to account for the potential endogeneity of innovation to trade. We show that innovation efforts in high-tech industries exhibit a strong effect on the technological progress of the region and they are closely linked to foreign direct investment and multinationals. As foreign-owned subsidiaries become a part of the innovation systems and industrial structure of the host country they promote overall technological growth in the region.