Publication
The moss Homalothecium mandonii as a model for assessing bryophyte response to climate change in Macaronesia
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Os briófitos possuem características ecofisiológicas e biológicas únicas que os tornam excelentes indicadores das alterações climáticas. Com o auxílio de modelos de nicho ecológico, analisou-se em que medida as alterações climáticas podem afectar a brioflora endémica da Macaronésia, em particular o musgo Homalothecium mandonii. A projecção do nicho actual desta espécie sobre as camadas macroclimáticas da última glaciação máxima, indicam que a área de distribuição da espécie seria superior em cerca de 200% relativamente à área actual. As projecções paleoclimáticas identificam ainda que a região noroeste de África e a Península Ibérica possuem condições climáticas favoráveis ao desenvolvimento desta espécie, sugerindo que se poderá tratar de um paleoendemismo. Em conformidade com observações prévias, os resultados obtidos sugerem que a Macaronésia representa um refúgio para as espécies actualmente extintas de zonas continentais. No entanto, as projecções do nicho climático da espécie para o futuro, predizem um declínio da área favorável de 29-53% em 2080. Tais predicções sugerem então que o papel de refúgio climático que a Macaronésia tem desempenhado se encontra fortemente ameaçado como resultado das alterações climáticas em curso.
ABSTRACT: Bryophytes exhibit specific ecophysiological and biological features that make them ideal indicators of climate change. Using species distributions models, we address the question of the impact of climate change on the endemic bryophyte flora of Macaronesia, taking the Macaronesian endemic moss Homalothecium mandonii as a model. Projections of the extant macroclimatic niche of the species onto climatic scenarios for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) suggested that the potential range of the species was about 200% larger than what it is currently. Paleoclimatic projections further identified Northwest African and Iberian areas as potentially suitable at the LGM, raising the possibility that H. mandonii is of paleo-endemic origin. Coupled with previous observations, this points to the role of Macaronesia as a refugium for palaeoendemics that went extinct in their primary continental regions. Projections of the macroclimatic niche of the species into the future predicted, however, a striking decrease in suitable range area of 29-53% by 2080. Our predictions thus suggest that, while Macaronesia appears to have been a refugium for species that went extinct on continents in the past, its role as a historical sanctuary might be severely threatened in the ongoing context of climate change.
ABSTRACT: Bryophytes exhibit specific ecophysiological and biological features that make them ideal indicators of climate change. Using species distributions models, we address the question of the impact of climate change on the endemic bryophyte flora of Macaronesia, taking the Macaronesian endemic moss Homalothecium mandonii as a model. Projections of the extant macroclimatic niche of the species onto climatic scenarios for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) suggested that the potential range of the species was about 200% larger than what it is currently. Paleoclimatic projections further identified Northwest African and Iberian areas as potentially suitable at the LGM, raising the possibility that H. mandonii is of paleo-endemic origin. Coupled with previous observations, this points to the role of Macaronesia as a refugium for palaeoendemics that went extinct in their primary continental regions. Projections of the macroclimatic niche of the species into the future predicted, however, a striking decrease in suitable range area of 29-53% by 2080. Our predictions thus suggest that, while Macaronesia appears to have been a refugium for species that went extinct on continents in the past, its role as a historical sanctuary might be severely threatened in the ongoing context of climate change.
Description
Keywords
Bryophytes Homalothecium mandonii Moss Macaronesia
Citation
Vanderpoorten, A., Mateo, R.G., Sim-Sim, M., Ruas, S., Dirkse, G., Gabriel, R., Borges, P.A.V., Gonzalez-Mancebo, R.M., Aranda, S.C. & Patiño, J. (2014). The moss Homlalothecium mandonii as a model for assessing bryophyte response to climate change in Macaronesia. "Silva Lusitana", No. Especial 1: 1-15.
Publisher
Instituto Nacional de Recursos Biológicos, Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária