Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/4227
Título: A Decision Support System for Municipal Budget Plan Decisions
Autor: Rego, Hugo
Mendes, Armando B.
Guerra, Hélia
Palavras-chave: DSS
Economic Indicators
Prediction Models
UML
Data: 2015
Editora: Springer Verlag
Citação: Rego H., Mendes A.B., Guerra H. (2015). A Decision Support System for Municipal Budget Plan Decisions. In: Rocha A., Correia A., Costanzo S., Reis L. (eds), "New Contributions in Information Systems and Technologies. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing", vol 354, 129-139. Springer International Publishing. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-16528-8_13
Resumo: This paper describes a Decision Support System to provide indicators to support budget plan decisions, in a local government organization, the municipality of Lagoa - S. Miguel, Azores. The work includes system modeling, using the UML notation, the development of a MySQL relational database, algorithms for data collection using PHP, and forecasting models using R functions, such as exponential smoothing, classical decomposition with linear trend, and ARIMA models. Users have access to predictions made by different models for several indicators, being suggested to use the models with closest to zero errors. From the analysis performed considering 12 years data, it is concluded that for most of indicators, the classical decomposition model is the most successful. However, for some indicators, it was found that the two error measures used are not consistent. In these cases, the final decision is left to the decision-maker, taking advantage of his domain knowledge.
Peer review: yes
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/4227
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-16528-8_13
ISBN: 978-3-319-16528-8
ISSN: 2194-5365
Versão do Editor: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-16528-8_13
Aparece nas colecções:DME - Parte ou Capítulo de um Livro / Part of Book or Chapter of Book

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